A flood risk projection for Soleimantangeh Dam against future climate change

نویسندگان

Fallah , Mostafa

Khosrojerdi, Amir

چکیده مقاله:

A sensitivity analysis of the flood safety of Solaimantangeh dam using a regional climate change simulation is presented. Based on the output of the CCSM (Community Climate Change System Model) general circulation model, the NIRCM (North of Iran Regional Climate Model) computes regional scale output with 50 km spatial resolution and 21 vertical layers. Using the SRES (Special Report Emission Scenario) “B1” Climate Change Scenario when applied to the Tajan river basin, where Solaimantangeh dam is located, NIRCM reduces significantly the bias in Annual Maximum Event total Precipitation (AMEP) & Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation (AMDP) that CCSM shows. The stream flow change scenario is then simulated using SSARR (Stream flow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model. A rainfall-runoff model was implemented using precipitation and temperature projected by CCSM and NIRCM. The model demonstrated that average Stream flow would increases 38.7% and the variability would increases 14.3%. This remarkable increase in projected annual maximum flow for the next 20 years (2004-2023) should be a significant negative signal to water resources managers. The results indicate that the number of floods remains almost the same, but that the magnitude of a single flood event and the recovery from it become worse.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

a flood risk projection for soleimantangeh dam against future climate change

a sensitivity analysis of the flood safety of solaimantangeh dam using a regional climate change simulation is presented. based on the output of the ccsm (community climate change system model) general circulation model, the nircm (north of iran regional climate model) computes regional scale output with 50 km spatial resolution and 21 vertical layers. using the sres (special report emission sc...

متن کامل

Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection.

OBJECTIVES We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model. METHODS We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European count...

متن کامل

Dam-break Flood Risk Management. an Integrated Project

Contemporary dam safety regulations include risk assessment at downstream flood plains and consideration of potential damages due to dam rupture, regardless of the expected probability of occurrence of such event. The aim of these kind of procedures is to increase the safety level along the valley against abnormal floods caused by dam accidents. Emergency plans for downstream flood plains, incl...

متن کامل

Flood risk zoning due to climate change under RCP 8.5 scenario using hydrologic model SWAT in Gis (Azarshahr basin)

In the present time, with the increase of industrial activities and the neglected environmental issues, the effects of climate change have become more evident and poses this phenomenon as a global difficult. Increasing the probability of occurrence of extreme climatic events such as flood and increasing the frequency and intensity of the effects of climate change. The northwest of the country i...

متن کامل

The computational future for climate change research

The development of climate models has a long history starting with the building of atmospheric models and later ocean models. The early researchers were very aware of the goal of building climate models which could integrate our knowledge of complex physical interactions between atmospheric, land-vegetation, hydrology, ocean, cryospheric processes, and sea ice. The transition from climate model...

متن کامل